Thank you so much for this. So appreciated tonight! I've followed your work for ages and am an active member of Simon's Hopium Community . I was on Threads (& also on the "site formerly known as Twitter" (ugh, I don't like it there) - - it's so depressing. Dems are depressed, not sure exactly why. It's not like Harris laughed too loud or wore the wrong color shoes or anything...
Trump having Putin on speed-dial while he flipped through stolen classified documents & sent off covid testing machines to Russia -- and the disinformation about FEMA's hurriciane relief -- well, THAT'S reason to be depressed - oh - - - and the lack of media attention to those things.
But I do have a question that's driving me crazy (ier). I was looking at some Kaiser (KFF) data re: turnout to confirm my hunch that women are more reliable voters vs. men. Like, in 2022 Wisconsin had a respectable midterm average turnout of 61% -- but WOMEN turned out at 63.2% ...men at 58.4%. That's a fair amount of female turnout!
QUESTION: Do (can) pollsters build this into their samples/models? Or is it just too hard to predict turnout even with historical data? Might the "female turnout factor" have an impact, esp. post-Dobbs? I mean, I'm way post-menopausal and the GOP guys all tell me I shouldn't CARE - but I have a GRANDDAUGHTER who I moved across the country to help raise (Wisconsin to Oregon).
Building on something you mentioned about younger voters - I realize that with small samples any lead can be "slight" and within the MOE, but Trump led 18-34 in the Michigan QPac head-to-head by a full 10 points. Harris led by 18 in their poll of Michigan from four weeks earlier. Harris leads 18-34 by 14 in their PA poll yesterday, the only one of the three states she led. Trump also led 18-34 in QPac's polls of NC and GA last week, the former by 14 points.
There is no consistency on polling with this group within 40+ points of margin, either within QPac's state and national polls or anyone else's, which is a big issue for the headline because they make up 12% or 13% of most modeled electorates - this issue alone is swinging polls by more than 5 points toward Trump at the extremes. I deal with anxiety by reading crosstabs, and if Harris leads any poll of anywhere by more than 10 points with young people, she leads by several points. If she doesn't, it's a mixed bag. Harris's edge in the Harvard Youth Survey is enormous - 31 points with likely voters and 25 points in the "battleground" subsample, and there are polls that find this as well, like this week's NYT/Siena with a 21-point lead.
So what to believe? Don't trust any polling at all... in 2020 Biden won Michigan 18-29 by 24, 61-37. PA and WI were within a couple points. The D margin went up just a little in 2022 from there. Since? Biden was old, Kamala is brat, and as you note young men have terrible online role models (though as I learned from a podcast you were on Joe Rogan isn't really unfriendly at this point). We can't know how that will come out in the wash, but I don't think Trump is going to flip a demographic that has gone for the Democrat by 19+ in every election since 2008 and to whom Kamala is perceived as having a uniquely strong appeal.
(and thank you for giving me a place to write this down, even if no one ever reads it)
Reading your and Joe’s comments is very interesting. It appears the latest Siena poll has Gen Z men for Trump +2 - so that seems like a terrible development for Ds if true, bc it adds to his margin with men with an unexpected group. However, the poll also assumes a female gender gap advantage of only +1 or +2- which I believe severely underestimates women. I also think they do not take into account “unaffiliated”
Or Independent support for Dems enough. think the theory that pollsters don’t want to underestimate Trump and at the same underestimate women in their polls is sound, therefore the right polls.
Dems can pick up 2 to 3 points in every race by doing solid voter education. They need to tell everyone not only how and when to register and how to vote, but the mistakes to avoid that invalidate ballots.
In the California primary this year, 109,000 ballots didn't get counted because of totally avoidable voter errors. In the 2022 midterms, over 560,000 by mail ballots didn't get counted again because of silly errors. Eliminate those errors and that's your margin of victory.
Go to my Substack where I have detailed steps by step instructions on how to cast a ballot that gets counted. I also focus on getting the disabled and the autistic voting, as I see that as another huge missed opportunity for Dems.
I worked in the elections industry for almost a decade so I have deep subject matter expertise.
By the way, Dan Osborne is going to take out deb fisher in Nebraska. His ads are awesome. I'm from Nebraska so I know how the ads are resonating.
Here in Texas, Allred is going to take out Cruz. I got polled the other night by Cruz and I could tell by the questions they were asking that they think they are down.
Writing Vote Forward Letters for Texas. Vote Forward just added Texas GOTV letters this week and one Congressional District. Vote Forward does research with controls, so, based on data they must be hopeful for Colin Allred. Fingers crossed and writing.
I made an app to help inform people quickly about over 300 important topics and people. It has quotes, facts, links, search, and memes. A favorite section is the one for Project 2025 which contains filtering boxes to specify an identity and display the most relevant proposals
Project 2025
AUTOCRACY AND DEMOCRACY
❌❌❌ replace 50,000 expert government employees with incompetent loyalists - Schedule F, p32, p80, p524, p535, p615, p651
❌ strip FBI director of autonomy, p549, p550
❌ reduce number of generals who could defy president, p104
❌ prioritize president loyalty in selection of White House counsel, p28
❌ halt federal efforts to combat misinfo/disinfo online, p155, p550
❌ give authority of the independent FEC to the president-controlled DOJ, p865
❌ defund PBS and NPR, p246
❌ eliminate Senate confirmations, p136, p173
❌ install saboteur loyalists as heads of EPA p428, DOJ p560, FBI p552, HUD p508, and DOL p615
ENVIRONMENT
❌ breakup National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, p664, p674
❌ make profit the National Weather Service's mission, p675
❌ gut Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), p422
❌ withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement and U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, p709
❌ close Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, p379
❌ close Office of Domestic Climate Policy, p61
❌ close Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon, p61
❌ close Office of Clean Energy Demonstration, p382
❌ close Clean Energy Corps, p386
❌ close Office of Environmental Justice & External Civil Rights, p442
❌ stop climate efforts in foreign aid programs, p257
❌ stop USDA's sustainable food production efforts, p293
❌ repeal Inflation Reduction Act grants for environmental science, p440
❌ empower citizen bounty hunters to go after environmental scientists, p438
❌ defund HUD climate change initiatives, p508
❌ revoke California's ability to set its own air quality standards, p629
❌ oppose windmills and electric cars, p286
❌ remove greenhouse gas reporting requirements, p425
❌ cut federal support for renewable energy projects, p406
❌ deny future veteran disability claims and reduce care for existing ones, p650
CRIME
❌ bring federal charges where they deem states not punitive enough, p553
❌ make sentences harsher, and more death penalty, p554
❌ legal actions against district attorneys who don't do what any citizen wants, p553
❌ gut the FBI p551
❌ close FBI Offices of General Counsel, Legislative Affairs, and Public Affairs, p285
❌ dismantle the Department of Homeland Security, p133
MENTAL HEALTH AND ADDICTION
DEFENSE
❌ more nuclear weapons, p94
🗣 "This is a great group and they're gonna lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do and what your movement will do when the American people give us a colossal mandate to save America."
- Donald Trump, April 2022, about the Heritage Foundation which produced Project 2025
🗣 "The basis of the plan is public. You can see that at project2025 dot org. There are parts of the plan we will not share with the Left. The executive orders. The rules and regulations. Like a good football team we don't want to tip off our play book to the Left"
Thank you so much for this. So appreciated tonight! I've followed your work for ages and am an active member of Simon's Hopium Community . I was on Threads (& also on the "site formerly known as Twitter" (ugh, I don't like it there) - - it's so depressing. Dems are depressed, not sure exactly why. It's not like Harris laughed too loud or wore the wrong color shoes or anything...
Trump having Putin on speed-dial while he flipped through stolen classified documents & sent off covid testing machines to Russia -- and the disinformation about FEMA's hurriciane relief -- well, THAT'S reason to be depressed - oh - - - and the lack of media attention to those things.
But I do have a question that's driving me crazy (ier). I was looking at some Kaiser (KFF) data re: turnout to confirm my hunch that women are more reliable voters vs. men. Like, in 2022 Wisconsin had a respectable midterm average turnout of 61% -- but WOMEN turned out at 63.2% ...men at 58.4%. That's a fair amount of female turnout!
QUESTION: Do (can) pollsters build this into their samples/models? Or is it just too hard to predict turnout even with historical data? Might the "female turnout factor" have an impact, esp. post-Dobbs? I mean, I'm way post-menopausal and the GOP guys all tell me I shouldn't CARE - but I have a GRANDDAUGHTER who I moved across the country to help raise (Wisconsin to Oregon).
SO
I am not engaged in this elecrtion. I AM ENRAGED.
Thank you for what you've done here!
Building on something you mentioned about younger voters - I realize that with small samples any lead can be "slight" and within the MOE, but Trump led 18-34 in the Michigan QPac head-to-head by a full 10 points. Harris led by 18 in their poll of Michigan from four weeks earlier. Harris leads 18-34 by 14 in their PA poll yesterday, the only one of the three states she led. Trump also led 18-34 in QPac's polls of NC and GA last week, the former by 14 points.
There is no consistency on polling with this group within 40+ points of margin, either within QPac's state and national polls or anyone else's, which is a big issue for the headline because they make up 12% or 13% of most modeled electorates - this issue alone is swinging polls by more than 5 points toward Trump at the extremes. I deal with anxiety by reading crosstabs, and if Harris leads any poll of anywhere by more than 10 points with young people, she leads by several points. If she doesn't, it's a mixed bag. Harris's edge in the Harvard Youth Survey is enormous - 31 points with likely voters and 25 points in the "battleground" subsample, and there are polls that find this as well, like this week's NYT/Siena with a 21-point lead.
So what to believe? Don't trust any polling at all... in 2020 Biden won Michigan 18-29 by 24, 61-37. PA and WI were within a couple points. The D margin went up just a little in 2022 from there. Since? Biden was old, Kamala is brat, and as you note young men have terrible online role models (though as I learned from a podcast you were on Joe Rogan isn't really unfriendly at this point). We can't know how that will come out in the wash, but I don't think Trump is going to flip a demographic that has gone for the Democrat by 19+ in every election since 2008 and to whom Kamala is perceived as having a uniquely strong appeal.
(and thank you for giving me a place to write this down, even if no one ever reads it)
I am reading it!!! So, one person more than “ no one” ….
As a retired CPA ( I was a forensic accountant) I dealt w/ numbers …. & also deal with anxiety by reading the crosstabs. Or at least, I was.
I can’t make sense of the polls — even the “ good” polls.
Reading your and Joe’s comments is very interesting. It appears the latest Siena poll has Gen Z men for Trump +2 - so that seems like a terrible development for Ds if true, bc it adds to his margin with men with an unexpected group. However, the poll also assumes a female gender gap advantage of only +1 or +2- which I believe severely underestimates women. I also think they do not take into account “unaffiliated”
Or Independent support for Dems enough. think the theory that pollsters don’t want to underestimate Trump and at the same underestimate women in their polls is sound, therefore the right polls.
Where I live in western PA. the women here are overwhelmingly voting for President Trump.
That’s what they tell you
& that's what the results showed here.
Well I sure am glad I don’t know
Them and will never meet them
*tight 😉
Dems can pick up 2 to 3 points in every race by doing solid voter education. They need to tell everyone not only how and when to register and how to vote, but the mistakes to avoid that invalidate ballots.
In the California primary this year, 109,000 ballots didn't get counted because of totally avoidable voter errors. In the 2022 midterms, over 560,000 by mail ballots didn't get counted again because of silly errors. Eliminate those errors and that's your margin of victory.
Go to my Substack where I have detailed steps by step instructions on how to cast a ballot that gets counted. I also focus on getting the disabled and the autistic voting, as I see that as another huge missed opportunity for Dems.
I worked in the elections industry for almost a decade so I have deep subject matter expertise.
By the way, Dan Osborne is going to take out deb fisher in Nebraska. His ads are awesome. I'm from Nebraska so I know how the ads are resonating.
Here in Texas, Allred is going to take out Cruz. I got polled the other night by Cruz and I could tell by the questions they were asking that they think they are down.
Writing Vote Forward Letters for Texas. Vote Forward just added Texas GOTV letters this week and one Congressional District. Vote Forward does research with controls, so, based on data they must be hopeful for Colin Allred. Fingers crossed and writing.
Great info. Thanks.
I made an app to help inform people quickly about over 300 important topics and people. It has quotes, facts, links, search, and memes. A favorite section is the one for Project 2025 which contains filtering boxes to specify an identity and display the most relevant proposals
Project 2025
AUTOCRACY AND DEMOCRACY
❌❌❌ replace 50,000 expert government employees with incompetent loyalists - Schedule F, p32, p80, p524, p535, p615, p651
❌ strip FBI director of autonomy, p549, p550
❌ reduce number of generals who could defy president, p104
❌ prioritize president loyalty in selection of White House counsel, p28
❌ halt federal efforts to combat misinfo/disinfo online, p155, p550
❌ give authority of the independent FEC to the president-controlled DOJ, p865
❌ defund PBS and NPR, p246
❌ eliminate Senate confirmations, p136, p173
❌ install saboteur loyalists as heads of EPA p428, DOJ p560, FBI p552, HUD p508, and DOL p615
ENVIRONMENT
❌ breakup National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, p664, p674
❌ make profit the National Weather Service's mission, p675
❌ gut Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), p422
❌ withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement and U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, p709
❌ close Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, p379
❌ close Office of Domestic Climate Policy, p61
❌ close Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon, p61
❌ close Office of Clean Energy Demonstration, p382
❌ close Clean Energy Corps, p386
❌ close Office of Environmental Justice & External Civil Rights, p442
❌ stop climate efforts in foreign aid programs, p257
❌ stop USDA's sustainable food production efforts, p293
❌ repeal Inflation Reduction Act grants for environmental science, p440
❌ empower citizen bounty hunters to go after environmental scientists, p438
❌ defund HUD climate change initiatives, p508
❌ revoke California's ability to set its own air quality standards, p629
❌ oppose windmills and electric cars, p286
❌ remove greenhouse gas reporting requirements, p425
❌ cut federal support for renewable energy projects, p406
❌ reduce Environmental Protection Agency regulations, p425
❌ halt all EPA activity, not explicitly authorized by Congress, p436
❌ kill wolves, bears, and horses, p528, p534
❌ end green subsidies, p378
❌ drill for more oil in Alaska, p523, p530, and Colorado p523, and Minnesota, p523
❌ more coal mines, p522
LGBTQ AND CHRISTIAN NATIONALISM
❌ ban pornography, including anything LGBTQ+, p5
❌ arrest and register teachers and librarians as sex offenders, p5
❌ restore Trump trans military ban, p104
❌ permit discrimination against LGBTQ+ adoption, p478
❌ permit sexual orientation and gender identity discrimination, p495, p584, p586
❌ delete "sexual orientation", "gender identity" from all government documents, p62, p259
❌ halt CDC collection of gender identity data, p456
❌ favor heterosexual marriage, p451, p489
❌ fund religious fathering training, p481
❌ defund international organizations that say "gender", p259
❌ stop providing VA gender-reassignment care, p644
❌ overtime for work on the Sabbath, p589
ABORTION AND BODILY AUTONOMY
❌ total ban on abortion, p260, p449, p489, p450, p455, p457
❌ revoke approval of abortion pills, p458
❌ ban mailing abortion pills, p459
❌ prosecute interstate drug cases (abortion pills) more harshly, p555, p562
❌ prohibit abortion travel funding, p471
❌ defund abortion providers, p471, p491
❌ shift Title X family planning funds from abortion providers to discriminating religious groups, p491
❌ defund states that require insurance to include abortion, p472
❌ delete "abortion", "reproductive health", and "sexual and reproductive rights" from all federal statutes, p259
❌ use the CDC (p455), and HHS (p461) to spread anti-choice propaganda
❌ restore Trump religious exemptions for ACA-mandated contraception and abortion coverage, p483, p585
❌ add funding for the rhythm method, p485
❌ require states to report the numbers, gestational ages, and reasons for every abortion, p455
❌ ensure that training for doctors, nurses, and doulas doesn't include anything about abortion, p485
❌ ban abortion-derived fetal tissue research, p461
❌ deny refugee girls abortions, p478
❌ national ban on physician-assisted suicide, p482
❌ remove morning-after pill from ACA contraception mandate, p485
❌ rename Department of Health and Human Services as Department of Life, p489
❌ stop providing VA abortion care, p644
❌ defund foreign NGOs that perform or promote abortion, p260
CHILDREN AND EDUCATION
❌ dismantle the Department of Education, p319
❌ defund daycare centers, p486
❌ defund single mothers with boyfriends, p451
❌ cut funding for school meals, p303
❌ eliminate federal Title One funding for K-12 schools, p326
❌ eliminate Head Start program, p482
❌ defund school districts with people who do not like voucher systems, p5
❌ reduce baby formula regulations, p302
❌ let kids do dangerous jobs, p595
❌ require students to take the military entrance exam, p102
❌ ban public school teaching about US history of Black, brown, and LGBTQ lives, p342
XENOPHOBIA AND RACISM
❌ 100,000-person detention camps, p143
❌ put citizenship question in the census, p680
❌ close Office of Immigration Detention Ombudsman, p165
❌ eliminate immigration prosecutorial discretion, p150
❌ reverse all Treasury Dept efforts to combat racial discrimination, p708
❌ stop EEOC collection of data about race, p583
❌ send back unaccompanied migrant children, p148
❌ make immigration more expensive, p146
❌ eliminate agricultural work visas, p611
❌ eliminate non-agricultural work visas, p612
❌ reject asylum claims based on gang and domestic violence, p148
❌ defund immigration NGOs to build walls and jails, p149
❌ terminate the doctrine of disparate impact, p72
❌ oppose DEI and anyone who supports it, p258
❌ defund the Palestinian Authority, p185
❌ abandon and betray the Kurds, p185
RICH PEOPLE VS. EVERYONE ELSE
❌ raise taxes $2,600/yr for families of four, p696
❌ cut taxes $3.5M/yr for billionaires, p696
❌ repeal the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, p365
❌ repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, p365, p465
❌ repeal the $2,000 out-of-pocket Medicare cap, p365
❌ entirely end all economic engagement with China, p13
❌ add lifetime caps on Medicaid benefits, affecting 18.5 million people, p468
❌ eliminate the Federal Reserve, p661, p776
❌ eliminate relief loans to small businesses after disasters, p750
❌ gut Dodd-Frank financial regulations, p705, p832
❌ abolish the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), p830
❌ abolish the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, p839
❌ combine OCC, FDIC, and NCUA so it's easier for president to control, p843, p705
❌ disable Federal Reserve to avert banking crises, p733
❌ privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac redirecting profits from society to private individuals, p706
❌ slash overtime pay, p592
❌ make it harder to unionize, p599
❌ make mining more dangerous and profitable, p832
❌ restore Trump anti-union executive orders, p81
❌ reverse Biden student debt relief and unforgive forgiven loans, p353
❌ end student loan forgiveness of servicemembers, p361
❌ remove employment from Federal Reserve's mandate, p661
❌ new SNAP (p299) and TANF (p476) work requirements
❌ repeal Biden Medicare drug price negotiation program, p465
❌ kick people off Medicaid, p467
❌ implement block grants to limit federal Medicaid funding, p466
❌ make pro-privatization option Medicare Advantage the default option, p465
❌ deregulate healthcare, p450, p464
❌ defund public transit maintenance and expansion, p635
❌ let trains be run by only one crew member, p636
❌ eliminate humans from train brake inspections, p636
❌ transfer Maritime Administration to Homeland Security and then remove Homeland Security, p637, p133
❌ allow evictions during a pandemic, p492
❌ repeal the ARC and PLC farmer protection programs, p296
❌ privatize and so raise costs of veteran healthcare, p645, p647, p648, p649
❌ reject multi-national "Vision Zero" approach to reducing vehicle fatalities, p629
❌ privatize as much as possible, p83
❌ deny future veteran disability claims and reduce care for existing ones, p650
CRIME
❌ bring federal charges where they deem states not punitive enough, p553
❌ make sentences harsher, and more death penalty, p554
❌ legal actions against district attorneys who don't do what any citizen wants, p553
❌ gut the FBI p551
❌ close FBI Offices of General Counsel, Legislative Affairs, and Public Affairs, p285
❌ dismantle the Department of Homeland Security, p133
MENTAL HEALTH AND ADDICTION
DEFENSE
❌ more nuclear weapons, p94
🗣 "This is a great group and they're gonna lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do and what your movement will do when the American people give us a colossal mandate to save America."
- Donald Trump, April 2022, about the Heritage Foundation which produced Project 2025
🗣 "The basis of the plan is public. You can see that at project2025 dot org. There are parts of the plan we will not share with the Left. The executive orders. The rules and regulations. Like a good football team we don't want to tip off our play book to the Left"
- Kevin Roberts, Heritage Foundation president
Copy, share, more: https://stopthegop.netlify.app/#project-2025
Republicans are flooding the averages with bogus polls
Honestly, all the vibes are serving 2016 again right now. Even with Harris running a better campaign than Hillary.