I don’t see anyone stating the obvious… men and a lot of women have a really hard time seeing a female President… Hispanics voting for a male Hispanic not a stretch… Pres elect has only managed to win when running against a woman… imagine that.. but I do appreciate your extensive analysis …
Don't forget El Colorismo, the Latino version of racism. Add that to the sexism, and Trump’s bringing out low-propensity bigot voters that only vote when he's on the ballot, and that explains it all. Obama overcame the racism by being the most talented candidate ever, but even he wouldn't have won if Bush hadn't tanked the economy and McCain hadn't picked the idiotic female Palin for his running mate.
I think there may be something to that, except both Hillary and Kamala lost by pretty close margins. At least in the Rust Belt states that might have propelled them to victory. Many assume Biden would have lost by a greater margin. Anyway, yes, another great analysis from Tom. Much appreciated.
I'd bet it depends on how you define suppression. I would include all forms of lying and structural factors too. When someone says they didn't vote because they don"t think their vote makes a difference, it's surely not an actuarial calculation of the odds their vote will tip an election (if it was, lotteries wouldn't be a $100 billion+ business, and fans of popular sports teams wouldn't make sure to wear their lucky jerseys or socks and eat their lucky pre-game meals). They're saying nothing changes, and the reason they feel that way is largely a result of the extent to which the Founders democratic vision has been corrupted, even for white property-owning males.
Conservatives say people of color don"t vote because they "don"t want to." Their forebears probably said black people "don"t really want to be free" and "Native American kids love boarding schools" too. But if turnout is a result of race and/or associated culture, they need to explain why Black American turnout is lower than all but three Black majority countries and why Latino turnout is lower than every majority Spanish-speaking country in the world, even though more than 90 percent of Latino *citizens* speak English, and bilingual voting information and materials have been required by law since 1965.
In the end, I think proving *de jure* voter suppression is a sucker's game that the right wants everyone else to play. In my opinion, from an actionable point of view that doesn't require angels or pins, *de facto* suppression is where we should focus, and I would include any and every difference in turnout between the highest turnout demographics (or psychographics) and everyone else in the definition of what it is. We can't really have one person, one vote in any actually meaningful sense until all those differences go away. So my guess is that the ballpark or order of magnitude answer to your question is "a lot." ;)
Thank you Tom. I’ve been looking forward to seeing this type of in-depth analysis. It’s important for the Democratic Party to see the breakdown of real numbers from this consequential election. This will allow the party to address voter registration issues. But the looming questions our party must ask and find answers to, no matter how painful, is why so many eligible voters sat this election out, why registered Dem voters stayed home, and why our young people chose to vote for a candidate such as Donald Trump.
Thanks for your work and I hope the candidates for the upcoming DNC Chairperson are listening.
What commenter Sandy K. (@sekrav187) writes below is key.
There's a concept in environmental sciences called 'shifting baseline' (https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.1794) - TLDR version is we unconsciously accept gradual changes, as if they are accepted norms, for a given condition because of a lack of experience and/or knowledge of past conditions, i.e., without knowing the past were, we can't perceive how much has changed since then, because we are only comparing to our own ‘normal’ baseline and not to a historical baseline.
For example, we talk about lower voter turnout for Dems between 2020 and 2024, but don't consider that in 2018 there were at least 200,000 polling places across the country, as of last analysis in 2022, we were down to 94,000
Then there are actual, voter purges in MAGA Repub-controlled/trifecta states. Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 8.5% of voters were purged! That's 19 million voters in 10 states with 1 million in Texas alone!
But, because we are fed a steady-stream of he said/she said, binary, conflict-driven narratives that force false equivalences between a party trying to win votes on the one hand, and a party bent on taking away our votes on the other, by the media, we don't recognize that ALL of Tr*mp's and MAGA Repubs' noise about so-called 'voter fraud' is simply disinformation, lies, projection, and gaslighting.
Repubs and the billionaire and price-gouging corporate backers have ALREADY orchestrated massive election fraud by suppressing voters, disenfranchising voters, and gerrymandering to dilute the power of one person, one vote.
And that's BEFORE we even touch on the possibility (really not so far fetched, given Tr*mp and his MAGA enablers were willing to conspire, coordinate and unleash a violent and deadly attack on our Capitol to hold onto their power) that greedy tech bros/kleptocrats/oligarchs in the U.S., China, and/or Russia had a hand in actual vote tabulation manipulation.
The bottom line: it is much more accurate to recognize that there were FAR fewer people who did, or would've voted for Harris, that were counted in 2024—than there votes for MAGA/Tr*mp.
And even more important to remember, in three elections, Tr*mp has NEVER reached even 50% of the national vote, with at least 12 million more Americans voting for someone OTHER than the jury-determined rapist, 34X-convicted felon, twice-impeached traitor, and Russian tool.
Thank you Tom! I appreciate your work. I think it shows the need for continuous engagement with our communities, in between elections, and listening to them. Democrats also have a man problem. We need an alternative representation of masculinity that the trump camp. Adam Kinglinger (sp) has brought this up. Making men feel important and having a place at the table, matters
I don’t see anyone stating the obvious… men and a lot of women have a really hard time seeing a female President… Hispanics voting for a male Hispanic not a stretch… Pres elect has only managed to win when running against a woman… imagine that.. but I do appreciate your extensive analysis …
Don't forget El Colorismo, the Latino version of racism. Add that to the sexism, and Trump’s bringing out low-propensity bigot voters that only vote when he's on the ballot, and that explains it all. Obama overcame the racism by being the most talented candidate ever, but even he wouldn't have won if Bush hadn't tanked the economy and McCain hadn't picked the idiotic female Palin for his running mate.
I think there may be something to that, except both Hillary and Kamala lost by pretty close margins. At least in the Rust Belt states that might have propelled them to victory. Many assume Biden would have lost by a greater margin. Anyway, yes, another great analysis from Tom. Much appreciated.
What role did voter suppression play in diminishing voter turnout for Dems (typically have a greater share of minority voters)?
I'd bet it depends on how you define suppression. I would include all forms of lying and structural factors too. When someone says they didn't vote because they don"t think their vote makes a difference, it's surely not an actuarial calculation of the odds their vote will tip an election (if it was, lotteries wouldn't be a $100 billion+ business, and fans of popular sports teams wouldn't make sure to wear their lucky jerseys or socks and eat their lucky pre-game meals). They're saying nothing changes, and the reason they feel that way is largely a result of the extent to which the Founders democratic vision has been corrupted, even for white property-owning males.
Conservatives say people of color don"t vote because they "don"t want to." Their forebears probably said black people "don"t really want to be free" and "Native American kids love boarding schools" too. But if turnout is a result of race and/or associated culture, they need to explain why Black American turnout is lower than all but three Black majority countries and why Latino turnout is lower than every majority Spanish-speaking country in the world, even though more than 90 percent of Latino *citizens* speak English, and bilingual voting information and materials have been required by law since 1965.
In the end, I think proving *de jure* voter suppression is a sucker's game that the right wants everyone else to play. In my opinion, from an actionable point of view that doesn't require angels or pins, *de facto* suppression is where we should focus, and I would include any and every difference in turnout between the highest turnout demographics (or psychographics) and everyone else in the definition of what it is. We can't really have one person, one vote in any actually meaningful sense until all those differences go away. So my guess is that the ballpark or order of magnitude answer to your question is "a lot." ;)
Thank you Tom. I’ve been looking forward to seeing this type of in-depth analysis. It’s important for the Democratic Party to see the breakdown of real numbers from this consequential election. This will allow the party to address voter registration issues. But the looming questions our party must ask and find answers to, no matter how painful, is why so many eligible voters sat this election out, why registered Dem voters stayed home, and why our young people chose to vote for a candidate such as Donald Trump.
Thanks for your work and I hope the candidates for the upcoming DNC Chairperson are listening.
LUV this in-depth analysis. Dems fell asleep at the registration wheel after 2020.
Keep 'em coming, Tom!
Do the numbers support all the gop purged voters? And DUDE, WHERE'S MY BALLOT? Have the election forensics of 2024 come out?
What commenter Sandy K. (@sekrav187) writes below is key.
There's a concept in environmental sciences called 'shifting baseline' (https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.1794) - TLDR version is we unconsciously accept gradual changes, as if they are accepted norms, for a given condition because of a lack of experience and/or knowledge of past conditions, i.e., without knowing the past were, we can't perceive how much has changed since then, because we are only comparing to our own ‘normal’ baseline and not to a historical baseline.
For example, we talk about lower voter turnout for Dems between 2020 and 2024, but don't consider that in 2018 there were at least 200,000 polling places across the country, as of last analysis in 2022, we were down to 94,000
(Thanks to MAGA Justices' Shelby v County in 2013; Source here: https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2024/03/there-are-100000-fewer-election-day-polling-places-2024/394959).
Then there are actual, voter purges in MAGA Repub-controlled/trifecta states. Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 8.5% of voters were purged! That's 19 million voters in 10 states with 1 million in Texas alone!
(Source here: https://truthout.org/articles/10-states-purged-over-19-million-voters-between-2020-and-2022-electoral-cycles).
But, because we are fed a steady-stream of he said/she said, binary, conflict-driven narratives that force false equivalences between a party trying to win votes on the one hand, and a party bent on taking away our votes on the other, by the media, we don't recognize that ALL of Tr*mp's and MAGA Repubs' noise about so-called 'voter fraud' is simply disinformation, lies, projection, and gaslighting.
Repubs and the billionaire and price-gouging corporate backers have ALREADY orchestrated massive election fraud by suppressing voters, disenfranchising voters, and gerrymandering to dilute the power of one person, one vote.
And that's BEFORE we even touch on the possibility (really not so far fetched, given Tr*mp and his MAGA enablers were willing to conspire, coordinate and unleash a violent and deadly attack on our Capitol to hold onto their power) that greedy tech bros/kleptocrats/oligarchs in the U.S., China, and/or Russia had a hand in actual vote tabulation manipulation.
(Source here: https://www.thecanary.co/global/world-analysis/2025/01/20/trump-musk-pennsylvania).
The bottom line: it is much more accurate to recognize that there were FAR fewer people who did, or would've voted for Harris, that were counted in 2024—than there votes for MAGA/Tr*mp.
And even more important to remember, in three elections, Tr*mp has NEVER reached even 50% of the national vote, with at least 12 million more Americans voting for someone OTHER than the jury-determined rapist, 34X-convicted felon, twice-impeached traitor, and Russian tool.
Thank you Tom! I appreciate your work. I think it shows the need for continuous engagement with our communities, in between elections, and listening to them. Democrats also have a man problem. We need an alternative representation of masculinity that the trump camp. Adam Kinglinger (sp) has brought this up. Making men feel important and having a place at the table, matters