An Update on the Asian American Vote

Let's take a few mins to catch up on the AAPI (Asian American/Pacific Islander) vote in this election.

After the 2020 election I wrote this analysis, highlighting how AAPI voters were decisive in some key states, especially GA, NV, and AZ.

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The Unprecedented Impact of the AAPI Vote on the 2020 Election

What we saw in 2020 was AAPI voters surging more in turnout, relative to 2016 than any other group. Just massive increases. They supported President Biden at a very high rate, and relied on early voting moreso than most voting blocs.

First, let's look a new voter registration. Since Vice President Harris became the nominee in July, AAPI voters have accounted for a larger share of new registrants across the battlegrounds (4.2%) than they did over the same period in 2020 (3.8%).

Now, to the early vote. As I have been repeating, the expectation has been that we would see Democratic voters pivot more back to Election Day, while Republicans will shift more to early voting. Given that AAPI voters lean Dem, I would have expected to see Asian Americans account for a smaller share of the early vote so far.

And that's what we're seeing across the battlegrounds, with a very slight decrease in AAPI vote share among early voters, relative to the same point in 2020.

So the AAPI early vote turnout is a bit uneven. Very Strong in NV, hanging in there in AZ and PA, and lagging slightly elsewhere.

A closer look at GA, where the surge in AAPI turnout in 2020 truly delivered the win: Looking at the breakdown by age, we see huge differences between those over age 50, where turnout is matching and even exceeding 2020, and those under 50, where turnout is lagging badly.

The same trend holds throughout the battleground states. Older AAPI voters are close to, and in some cases actually exceeding their 2020 turnout, relative to the same point in the early vote.

So what does this all mean? We'll be watching this generational gap in the AAPI vote. The older AAPI vote is very, very strong so far. The key question is if younger AAPI voters will come out in equal numbers on Election Day.